The UFC starts off the New Year a loaded card in Chicago. The main card should feature some very competitive fights that will have major implications in their respective decisions. There are a lot of fighters who will be fighting close to home and that should be taken into consideration. Enjoy the picks and lets win some cash..
Benson Henderson vs Josh Thomson
Smizz: This is a very close fight in my eyes, which will most likely determine the next title challenger at 155 (unless Aldo moves up). Benson has beat everyone put in his way in the UFC, until he was dominated by Pettis in his last fight. I haven’t always agreed with the judges on his wins, but wins are wins. I was very impressed by Josh Thomson in his last fight, finishing Nate Diaz. Thomson has never got the credit that he deserves and I think he has a great chance to win this fight. I think that he is just playing mind games when he is saying that he has had the worst camp of his career. If it is true, I will look like an idiot because I think he wins this fight. I think he wins a razor close decision against a guy who always seems to get the nod in those fights.
Prediction: Thomson via split decision
MRD: I can never imagine Henderson losing a decision in the UFC but he has to make sure he gets to the score cards. Dana can say all he wants about the judging but I believe that he may have had some part in a lot of controversial title decisions. It makes for a good topic or talking point and gets the UFC into the main stream media coverage. Thomson has lost twice to Melendez while Henderson beat him once via split. I do think Henderson is the better fighter and will be on the revenge trail after losing his belt.
Prediction Henderson via unanimous decision
Stipe Miocic vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Smizz: These are two of the most underrated heavyweights in the UFC. While Gonzaga has been inconsistent, when he shows up he can beat almost anybody. Stipe had one hiccup vs Struve, which both of the studz predicted, but hasn’t really had a close fight besides that in the UFC. I think that Stipe is just too good on the feet and avoids the ground in this fight. I think he pushes the pace and finishes Gonzaga in the second.
Prediction: Miocic via TKO rd 2
MRD: Miocic is fighting pretty close to home since he fights out of Ohio. Gonzaga has been on a nice run and really a career revival over the last year. For Gonzaga to win this fight he needs to get inside the reach of Miocic but that will be difficult to do. I really do not like both guys and the fact that Miocic is ranked 8 really show how weak this division is. These guys should not be contending for a title. I think Gonzaga over powers Miocic in round 1 to vault him into more ridiculous title talk.
Prediction: Gonzaga via TKO rd 1
Donald Cerrone vs Adriano Martins
Smizz: I don’t really understand this matchup. I think that Cerrone deserved a more proven fighter for his next fight. He is having a quick turnaround for this fight and apparently just wants a paycheck. I don’t think that really affects him here, as he is the more skilled fighter. I see him out classing Martins here and stays at 155 (shut up Cole Miller).
Prediction: Cerrone via unanimous decision
MRD: Cerrone has stated that he want to fight 6 times this year since he is broke. Cowboy should have a lot of advantages in this fight but he has had some difficulty starting fights. He has a tendency to come out slow. Martins has not fought nearly the quality of competition that cowboy has, and I think that will be his downfall.
Prediction: Cerrone via TKO rd 2
Darren Elkins vs Jeremy Stephens
Smizz: Both of these guys have looked good at this weight. Elkins is going to go for takedowns and try and grind you out. Stephens has some of the best power at this weight class and just destroyed Rony Jason. Elkins is a solid fighter, but I think that Stephens continues his hot streak and puts him out.
Prediction: Stephens via TKO rd 2
MRD: Elkins would love to bring this fight to the ground and grind out 15 minutes. Stephens has great power and is 2-0 at 145 and he has fought some really good fighters at 155. This is a classic contrasting style match so I will go with Elkins and hope that he doesn’t get caught with a fist at some point.
Prediction: Elkins via unanimous decision
Alex “Bruce Lee Roy” Caceres vs Sergio Pettis
Smizz: This could be my favorite fight on the whole card. MRD and I are big fans of Bruce Leeroy. I am also excited to see what damage Sergio Pettis can do in this weight class. Sergio didn’t look very good in his debut, but he is very young and had a very tough opponent for his debut. Caceres has had his ups and downs, but had looked very good in his fights since TUF. I think this is a close fight, but I think Bruce Leeroy catches the younger Pettis with an impressive submission win.
Prediction: Caceres via sub rd 1
MRD: As Smizz mentioned I am clearly in the corner of Bruce Leeroy for this fight. He really should not have a UFC loss at 135, yes the groin kicks were illegal but he won that fight and another was ruled no contest due to a positive test for weed. Although Pettis did not impress his last time out it is important to remember that in the past Bruce as struggled with sub defense. I still think Bruce is too unpredictable and against such a young fighter should be able to get that win.
Prediction: Caceres via unanimous decision
Eddie Wineland vs Yves Jabouin
Smizz: This looks like a fight that could be entertaining on the feet, but should get Wineland back in the win column. I see these guys standing and trading, but Jabouin doesn’t have the best chin, and I don’t think it holds up with the power of Wineland.
Prediction: Wineland via KO rd 1
MRD: Wineland is going to have a longer reach but he should be the smaller fighter. Jabouin has fought at 145 before and has had a pretty nice run at 135 since making the move down. Wineland should have the power advantage and since Brad Pickett KO’d Jabouin I would expect him to go to sleep again in this fight.
Prediction: Wineland via TKO rd 2
Chico Camus vs Yaotzin Meza
Smizz: Chico looked great in his bantamweight debut in his last fight, while it is hard to judge how Meza has looked in the UFC. He was thrown to the wolves on short notice against Mendes and then he beat John Albert (who hasn’t). I think that it is going to be very close as Meza has a 3 inch reach advantage, but I think Chico’s wrestling will get him a decision win.
Prediction: Camus via unanimous decision
MRD: Camus looked pretty good his last time out. He could have a three fight winning streak but he lost t Kimura who missed weight for the fight. Meza will have a reach advantage in this fight and is a pretty solid wrestler. I would expect a pretty good ground fight and I will pick the upset and say Meza get the win.
Prediction: Meza via unanimous decision
Junior Hernandez vs Hugo Viana
Smizz: Hernandez has faced some good fighters in his pre-UFC days, but lost to all of them. He was destroyed in his first UFC fight and I don’t see this one being much better. Hugo looked very impressive against Duran and there is no shame in losing to TJ Dillishaw. I think Viana gets back in the win column with a big TKO win.
Prediction: Viana via TKO rd 3
MRD: In these smaller weight classes the better guy normally wins. Viana is coming off a loss to Dillishaw whose next fight will probably be for the title. Both guys have a lot of decisions n their careers. I would expect this to be a exciting standup battle with the second guy nickname wolverine to come out on top.
Prediction: Viana via split decision
Daron Cruickshank vs Mike Rio
Smizz: I am so sick of these matchups between TUF guys. They face enough of these bums on the show, why do they get matched up so much after? Rio got 2 huge steps up in competition and proved that he isn’t very good. Cruikshank has some nice wins since his time on the show and while I don’t think he is very good, I think he wins this fight with his superior striking.
Prediction: Cruickshank via unanimous decision
MRD: I have always believe that Cruickshank should be better that he has proved in the UFC. He has great athletic ability and for some reason that has not translated into consecutive UFC wins. Rio has lost to every opponent he has faced that has a wiki account so I would say he has been a disappointment as well. Cruickshank is fighting closer to home and that is enough for me to give him the edge.
Prediction: Cruickshank via TKO rd 3
George Sullivan vs Mike Rhodes
Smizz: Both guys are UFC newcomers and there is a lot of hype surrounding Rhodes. Sullivan has raddled off a few TKO wins in his past few fights, while Rhodes only has one loss to Brandon Thatch. I am going to go with “Biggie” Rhodes here to get an impressive finish in his debut. Sullivan has never been knocked out, but hasn’t faced the best competition.
Prediction: Rhodes via TKO rd 2
MRD: Sullivan has been around the fight game for a little longer than Rhodes and holds ten victories by KO/TKO. Rhodes will have a little bit of a home town crowd since he is fighting out of Milwaukee. Both guys have been submitted in their careers but only Rhodes has won a fight via sub. I think Rhodes will have the better standup and pick up a win.
Prediction: Rhodes via unanimous decision
Walt Harris vs Nikita Krylov
Smizz: The heavyweight division is just a joke. Krylov participated in one of the worst fights of 2013 and I have no idea how he got another fight in the UFC. Harris lost to big time prospect Jared Rosholt, but looked good early on. Have to give Krylov props for lasting that long against “The Hulk”, but I think he goes to sleep in this one.
Prediction: Harris via TKO rd 1
MRD: I like to believe that a heavyweight fight between to low caliber guys will end quickly and not drag on for three rounds. Harris should have the better standup and more power but Krylov did stay he plans on keeping the fight standing. I cannot see him winning with that strategy although at +300 he might be worth a flyer cause this is closer than the line indicates.
Prediction: Harris via TKO rd 2
Bonuses Predictions
FOTN: Smizz: Henderson vs Thomson MRD: Caceres vs Pettis
KOTN: Smizz: Wineland MRD: Cerrone
SOTN: Smizz: Caceres MRD: None
Follow Smizz and MRD @studzandoddz
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